El Comercio De La República - Trump's hesitation in Iran

Trump's hesitation in Iran

The ongoing mass protests in Iran since the end of December 2025 have plunged the country into one of its most serious crises since the 1979 revolution. Despite a strict internet and telephone blackout, millions of people took to the streets to demonstrate against inflation, corruption and the arbitrariness of the spiritual rulers. Security forces cracked down brutally: according to reports from human rights organisations, thousands of demonstrators were killed, hundreds of bodies piled up in makeshift morgues, and doctors reported overcrowded emergency rooms. In addition, more than ten thousand people were arrested, while the state largely cut off the country from the internet to hide the enormity of its actions. The anger of the population was no longer directed at individual reforms, but at the entire system of the Islamic Republic.

US President Donald Trump, who had already bombed Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and had presented himself as a ‘peacemaker’ during his election campaign, responded to the violence with sharp threats. On social media, he promised help to the demonstrators and threatened the Tehran leadership with consequences if they continued to kill their own people. His words raised high expectations at home and abroad, as many Iranians hoped for international support. At the same time, he raised fears of a renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Reasons for the hesitation
Despite his bellicose tone, Trump has so far shied away from another military strike against Iran. Several factors explain this hesitation:

- Danger of a war spiralling out of control:
The Iranian leadership openly threatened to attack American bases and allies in the Middle East in the event of an attack. If missiles were to strike US bases in Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, Washington would have to expect massive retaliation. A limited air strike could quickly escalate into a regional conflagration or a protracted ground operation – scenarios that Trump is wary of due to the risk to American soldiers and the danger of cyber and terrorist attacks on the homeland.

- Economic risks:
A war could block the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world's oil is transported. Experts warn of skyrocketing energy prices and global inflation, which would hit the US economy hard. Trump keeps a close eye on oil prices and has always seen the state of the economy as a measure of his popularity.

- Regional diplomacy:
According to diplomats, neighbouring Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt urgently asked the US president not to strike. They fear refugee flows, retaliatory attacks and instability. These countries, which host American bases, pointed out that a war against Iran would also jeopardise their security and further destabilise the already unstable region. Trump then signalled that he wanted to give Iran a chance after important channels informed him that the killings had stopped and no executions were planned.

- Domestic political pressure:
Surveys in the US show that the majority of the population rejects new foreign missions. Many of his supporters voted for him because he promised to end ‘endless wars’. A war against Iran could jeopardise his re-election and destroy his image as a supposed peacemaker.

- Lack of strategy:
Experts point out that there is no clear plan for what comes ‘afterwards’. A targeted strike would hardly topple the regime, but rather strengthen nationalist reflexes and make the security apparatus even more brutal. A full-scale war would be extremely costly and politically risky. That is why the US government is currently focusing primarily on sanctions, tariffs and diplomatic channels.

- Advice from within his own camp:
Within the administration, some top politicians are urging restraint. They emphasise that the US is also involved in other conflicts and that another front would tie up resources. Advisers are therefore pushing ahead with talks with Tehran to once again explore a diplomatic solution for the nuclear programme and the future of the country.

The victory of violence?
The question of whether the Islamic leadership has won by taking bloody action against its own population can only be answered provisionally. The protests were crushed with extreme brutality. Thousands of deaths, thousands of injuries and more than ten thousand arrests have brought the movement to a standstill for the time being. Due to the total ban on communication, the tragedy has remained largely hidden from the world, while fear and shock reign in the country. At the same time, these massacres have further widened the deep divide between the government and society. The fact that the leadership regards its own population as its greatest enemy and is prepared to crush any resistance reveals its weakness and the erosion of its legitimacy.

In this situation, the causes of the uprisings – economic hardship, oppression, lack of freedom – have not disappeared. The combined violence of the regime and reprisals has only brought about a short-term victory. Many analysts see the US president's cautious behaviour not as fear, but as political calculation: on the one hand, he does not want to be seen as weak, but on the other, he does not want to risk a war with an uncertain outcome. The Iranian leadership interprets his threats as bluff, but uses them for propaganda purposes to distract from its own crimes.

What happens next?
Whether Trump orders a military strike against Iran depends on many variables: the further course of the protests, the behaviour of the Iranian security authorities, the position of regional actors and the mood in his own country. At present, there are many indications that Washington is relying on economic pressure, cyber operations and targeted sanctions. Open war remains the horror scenario that all parties involved want to avoid, despite their bellicose rhetoric. The mullah leadership may have achieved a temporary victory with its unprecedented violence, but the price is a society that is even more determined to demand freedom. The final chapter of this crisis has therefore not yet been written.

Seven-Day Sanctions Showdown

Trump vs. EU: A good deal?

Japan's financial precipice

Iraq vs. Iran – The end?

France's debt is growing

Azerbaijan defies Russia

Geopolitics: Peru's balancing act

Spain defies NATO's 5% goal

Israel's Covert Nuclear Rise

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

Germany's Anti-Woke Tide

Demographic Collapse Crisis

Featured

Stargate project, Trump and the AI war...

In a dramatic return to the global political stage, former President Donald J. Trump, as the current 47th President of the United States of America, has unveiled his latest initiative, the so-called ‘Stargate Project,’ in a bid to cement the United States’ dominance in artificial intelligence and outpace China’s meteoric rise in the field. The newly announced programme, cloaked in patriotic rhetoric and ambitious targets, is already stirring intense debate over the future of technological competition between the world’s two largest economies.According to preliminary statements from Trump’s team, the Stargate Project will consolidate the efforts of leading American tech conglomerates, defence contractors, and research universities under a centralised framework. The former president, who has long championed American exceptionalism, claims this approach will provide the United States with a decisive advantage, enabling rapid breakthroughs in cutting-edge AI applications ranging from military strategy to commercial innovation.“America must remain the global leader in technology—no ifs, no buts,” Trump declared at a recent press conference. “China has been trying to surpass us in AI, but with this new project, we will make sure the future remains ours.”Details regarding funding and governance remain scarce, but early indications suggest the initiative will rely heavily on public-private partnerships, tax incentives for research and development, and collaboration with high-profile venture capital firms. Skeptics, however, warn that the endeavour could fan the flames of an increasingly militarised AI race, raising ethical concerns about surveillance, automation of warfare, and data privacy. Critics also question whether the initiative can deliver on its lofty promises, especially in the face of existing economic and geopolitical pressures.Yet for its supporters, the Stargate Project serves as a rallying cry for renewed American leadership and an antidote to worries over China’s technological ascendancy. Proponents argue that accelerating AI research is paramount if the United States wishes to preserve not just military supremacy, but also the economic and cultural influence that has typified its global role for decades.Whether this bold project will succeed—or if it will devolve into a symbolic gesture—remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the Stargate Project has already reignited debate about how best to safeguard America’s strategic future and maintain the balance of power in the fast-evolving arena of artificial intelligence.

Truth: The end of the ‘Roman Empire’

The fall of the Roman Empire in the fifth century AD has long captivated historians and the public alike. For centuries, scholars have debated the precise causes of the Empire’s decline, offering myriad explanations—ranging from political corruption and economic instability to moral degeneration and barbarian invasions. Yet despite the passage of time and the wealth of research available, there remains no single, universally accepted answer to the question: why did the Roman Empire truly collapse?A central factor often cited is political fragmentation. As the Empire grew too vast to govern effectively from one centre, Emperor Diocletian introduced the Tetrarchy—a system dividing the realm into eastern and western halves. While initially intended to provide administrative efficiency, this division ultimately paved the way for competing centres of power and weakened the unity that had long defined Roman rule. Frequent changes of leadership and civil wars further sapped the state’s coherence, undermining confidence in the imperial regime.Economics played an equally crucial role. Burdened by expensive military campaigns to protect ever-extending frontiers, the Empire resorted to debasing its currency, provoking rampant inflation and eroding public trust. The resulting fiscal strains fuelled social unrest, as high taxes weighed heavily upon small farmers and urban dwellers alike. Coupled with declining trade routes and resource depletion, these pressures contributed to a persistent sense of crisis.Compounding these challenges was the growing threat from beyond Rome’s borders. Germanic tribes such as the Visigoths, Vandals, and Ostrogoths gradually eroded the Western Empire’s defensive capabilities. While earlier Roman armies proved formidable, internal discord had dulled their edge, allowing external forces to breach once-impenetrable frontiers.Modern historians emphasise that the Empire did not fall solely because of barbarian invasions, moral decay, or fiscal collapse; instead, its downfall was the outcome of a confluence of factors, each interacting with the other. The story of Rome’s fall thus serves as a stark reminder that even the mightiest of civilisations can succumb to the inexorable weight of political, economic, and social upheaval.

Malaysia's Strategic Ascent

Malaysia has long been a significant player in Southeast Asia, but recent developments have positioned it as one of the most strategic economies in the entire Asian region. Through a combination of robust infrastructure, strategic geographic positioning, proactive government policies, and a diversified economic base, Malaysia is emerging as a pivotal hub for trade, investment, and innovation. Its ability to navigate global challenges while maintaining steady growth underscores its rising influence in Asia’s economic landscape.A Remarkable Economic TransformationSince gaining independence in 1957, Malaysia has undergone a profound economic transformation. Once reliant on agriculture and commodity exports such as rubber and tin, the country has successfully diversified into a manufacturing and service-based economy. Today, Malaysia is a leading exporter of electrical appliances, parts, and components, with its manufacturing sector serving as a cornerstone of economic growth. This shift has elevated Malaysia from a low-income to an upper-middle-income nation within a single generation, a feat that few countries have achieved so rapidly. The country’s gross national income (GNI) per capita has grown impressively over the decades, reflecting sustained economic momentum.Global Trade and ConnectivityA key factor in Malaysia’s rise is its extensive global trade connections. The country engages with 90 percent of the world’s nations, surpassing many of its regional counterparts in trade openness. This has driven employment creation and income growth, with approximately 40 percent of jobs linked to export activities. Malaysia’s strategic development policies, which focus on outward-oriented, labour-intensive growth and investments in human capital, have ensured macroeconomic stability. The government’s emphasis on credible economic governance has also played a crucial role in maintaining investor confidence.Vision for a High-Income FutureIn recent years, Malaysia has set its sights on becoming a high-income, developed nation while ensuring sustainable shared prosperity. The government’s National Investment Aspirations (NIA), adopted in 2021, has been instrumental in reshaping the country’s investment landscape. The NIA prioritises foreign direct investment (FDI) that enhances local research and development (R&D), generates high-income jobs, and integrates Malaysia into global supply chains. This framework has laid the foundation for the New Industrial Master Plan, which aims to further boost Malaysia’s economic complexity and innovation.World-Class InfrastructureMalaysia’s infrastructure is another critical asset. The country boasts one of the most developed infrastructures in Asia, with a telecommunications network second only to Singapore’s in Southeast Asia, supporting millions of fixed-broadband, fixed-line, and cellular subscribers. Its strategic location on the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, enhances its commercial significance. Malaysia’s highly developed maritime shipping sector has earned it a top global ranking for shipping trade route connectivity.Resilience Amid Global ChallengesThe Malaysian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of external challenges. In the fourth quarter of 2024, despite increasing global headwinds, Malaysia’s economy grew by 5.0 percent, driven by strong investment activities, rising exports, and sustained domestic spending. The central bank’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 3 percent reflects confidence in the country’s economic prospects, with inflation expected to remain manageable. Notably, the Malaysian ringgit appreciated by 2.7 percent in 2024, making it one of the few Asian currencies to strengthen during the year.A Forward-Looking EconomyLooking ahead, Malaysia’s growth is expected to be fuelled by robust investment expansion, resilient household spending, and a recovery in exports. The government’s Twelfth Malaysia Plan, which focuses on accelerating economic growth through selective investments and infrastructure development, is set to play a pivotal role in achieving these goals. Government-linked investment vehicles continue to invest in key sectors, further bolstering the economy.Stability and InclusivityMalaysia’s ability to manage inter-ethnic tensions pragmatically has also contributed to its economic stability. Despite occasional challenges, the country has maintained growth momentum, a testament to its inclusive development policies. The government’s focus on sustainable shared prosperity ensures that economic benefits are distributed equitably, fostering social cohesion and long-term stability.ConclusionIn conclusion, Malaysia’s strategic location, advanced infrastructure, diversified economy, and forward-thinking government policies have positioned it as a linchpin in Asia’s economic future. As the country continues to navigate global uncertainties while pursuing its vision of becoming a high-income nation, Malaysia is well on its way to becoming Asia’s most strategic economy.